As promised, the NL breakdown for 2009. I can’t believe the regular season starts tonight. I’d lean Braves but not sure still if I’m going to play it. I do have picks already locked in for tomorrow and will post them at the end.

NL East:
1. Mets
2. Marlins
3. Phillies
4. Braves
5. Nationals

Mets spent the money and this is probably the last year in terms of leeway the coaching staff has to win the division. Not sure if Utley’s bumps and bruises will catch up to him or not, but I’m betting the Phils won’t be the team they were last year. Marlins should be the darkhorse in the division, with some of the best bats and pitchers that will be household names by the end of the year. Maybe I’m a little biased since I have cash on a futures bet to win the NL East. Once again, doesn’t look good for Nats fans. Atleast teams like the Braves and Marlins have young players with upside, unlike like the Nationals.

NL Central:
1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Astros
4. Brewers
5. Pirates

Piniella misplayed his pitching staff last year, not resting his starters enough and were gased by the end of the season. I don’t see him making the same mistake twice. Only need to worry about the Cardinals since Carpenter will be coming back from injuries last year. Cards’ top two starters missed 28 combined starts last season and a relief they’re back on the mound. Only Cards X factor is their closer, Latte. Astros made quite the push to close the season but the team is just too old to back. Brewers only have one legitimate starter, so pitching is an issue while the Pirates are…well…..the Pirates.

NL West:
1. Dbacks
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Everyone and their mother thinks the Dodgers run away with the division. Yes they do have the bats. But Diamondbacks have Webb and Haren. Pitching wins divisions. And if the Dbacks young bats in Upton, Drew, Young etc. can mature after another year, look for Arizona to take the division. Giants should be improved and look to their outfield as chalk full of up and comers along side Lincecum, Cain and veteran Johnson. Probably good value in them to make the playoffs.

NL MVP: Matt Kemp
Time for the kid’s breakthrough season and should see a lot of pitches batting ahead of Manny. Two horse race between him and Hanley Ramirez.

NL Cy Young: Ricky Nolasco
Marlins ace who 99% of casual fans have never heard of. Well you’ll hear when he pitches over 200 innings like he did last year and builds on his 15 wins last year. Just pray he didn’t throw himself dead .

Coach of the Year: Fredi Gonzalez
Marlins win the wildcard in the NL East? With all that young talent it’s possible. Shocks the fans and wins the title for taking his kids to Fall baseball.

Here are three of my picks for opening day:

Reds +145
Rangers +115
Royals +125

Enjoy one of the greatest days in sports!

–Valdez

Playing a light 8 point teaser for the Final Four day. These lines are really tough to crack. Kudos to Vegas and the books.

Uconn +4
Uconn/Mich St. ovr 124
UNC +1

Seems like a pretty square play by bumping all the favorites down, but oh well. Uconn is filled with stars and if you think they’ll win, then the over should be a play as well. I just have them at a better value for the teaser.

Brandon Lang was right when he was on the show Friday. Tough matchup with the Nova/Heels game. Lawson controls this one IMO. His ability to push or slow it down to feed to Hansborough will make the outcome. I honestly think that the Heels can play defense if they are motivated enough. Now’s the best time to be motivated.

Opening Day lines are out at my site, bookmaker.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE
10:10 AM 901 NY METS, Pitcher: JO SANTANA-L -1½-105 o7½-105 -165
902 CIN REDS, Pitcher: A HARANG -R +1½-115 u7½-115 +145

12:40 PM 903 COL ROCKIES, Pitcher: A COOK -R +1½-160 o7½-110 +150
904 ARI D-BACKS, Pitcher: B WEBB -R -1½+140 u7½-110 -170

1:10 PM 905 WAS NATIONALS, Pitcher: J LANNAN -L +1½-160 o8-110 +145
906 FLA MARLINS, Pitcher: R NOLASCO -R -1½+140 u8-110 -165

1:15 PM 907 PIT PIRATES, Pitcher: P MAHOLM -L +1½-130 o8-110 +175
908 STL CARDINALS, Pitcher: WAINWRIGHT-R -1½+110 u8-110 -205

4:05 PM 909 LA DODGERS, Pitcher: H KURODA -R +1½-200 o6½-115 +120
910 SDG PADRES, Pitcher: J PEAVY -R -1½+170 u6½-105 -140

4:05 PM 911 CHI CUBS, Pitcher: C ZAMBRANO-R -1½+140 o8-105 -115
912 HOU ASTROS, Pitcher: R OSWALT -R +1½-160 u8-115 -105

AMERICAN LEAGUE
11:05 AM 913 TAM RAYS, Pitcher: J SHIELDS -R +1½-170 o8½-110 +130
914 BOS RED SOX, Pitcher: J BECKETT -R -1½+150 u8½-110 -150

11:05 AM 915 CLE INDIANS, Pitcher: C LEE -L -1½+120 o9½-105 -140
916 TEX RANGERS, Pitcher: K MILLWOOD-R +1½-140 u9½-115 +120

11:05 AM 917 KAN ROYALS, Pitcher: G MECHE -R +1½-185 o8-105 +120
918 CHI W SOX, Pitcher: M BUEHRLE -L -1½+165 u8-115 -140

1:05 PM 919 NY YANKEES, Pitcher: C SABATHIA-L -1½-130 o8½-110 -205
920 BAL O`S, Pitcher: J GUTHRIE -R +1½+110 u8½-110 +175

4:15 PM 921 DET TIGERS, Pitcher: VERLANDER -R +1½-170 o7½-115 +135
922 TOR B-JAYS, Pitcher: R HALLADAY-R -1½+150 u7½-105 -155

5:10 PM 923 SEA MARINERS, Pitcher: F HERNANDZ-R +1½-170 o7½-105 +135
924 MIN TWINS, Pitcher: F LIRIANO -L -1½+150 u7½-115 -155

6:05 PM 925 OAK A`S, Pitcher: D BRADEN -L +1½-160 o8½-105 +145
926 LA ANGELS, Pitcher: J SAUNDERS-L -1½+140 u8½-115 -165

At first glance:

Gil Meche and Felix Hernandez at plus money? Only on opening day.

Over in the Rangers game looks tempting. Byrd a flat ball pitcher in a park where the ball soars and against Rangers bats. Also could come back down to earth after last year.

Just some initial vibes. Will look over the numbers some more before Sunday and Monday.

–Valdez

Baseball season is right around the corner. I can’t wait. It’s a marathon grind but can be the most profitable sport there is in terms of wagering. Remember, in baseball it’s all about value.

Here are a couple preseason wagers I have.

Prince Fielder to have most homeruns in MLB: 15-1

Cardinals to win NL Central: +625

Marlins to win NL East: +1000

Season win totals.

2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Florida Marlins 04/07/09(19:00 ET)
Over 76.5 (-115)

2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Cincinnati Reds 04/07/09(19:00 ET)
Over 80.5 (-115)

2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Baltimore Orioles 04/07/09(19:00 ET)
Over 72.5 (-105)

2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Toronto Blue Jays 04/07/09(19:00 ET)
Under 79.5 (-115)

2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Los Angeles Angels 04/07/09(19:00 ET)
Under 87.5 (even)

I’ll start with my AL predictions today and have the NL by the end of the weekend.

AL East:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

Not a believer in the Rays. I just think it was a perfect storm of variables coming together for a young team and this year will be based on how the Rays handle the success from last year and the expectations. In a brutal division, I see the Rays letting down without the “No one thought we could do this” mindset. Honestly, it’s a coin flip for Sox/Yanks to win the division (See Vegas preseason futures with both at +115). It doesn’t matter who wins the division between the two, both will make the playoffs IMO, only difference is one franchise gets a new division championship banner.

AL Central:
1. Twins
2. Indians
3. Royals
4. White Sox
5. Tigers

This division is a crap shoot. You have potential in every team without the predictability. Will the Tigers’ talent play up to its ability? Will the Indians keep Hafner and Martinez healthy and build on their hot finish to the 2008 season? How will the White Sox’s youth movement pan out? Will the Royals youth continue to grow as it did in the latter half of the season or will poor management stunt it? My prediction lays with the most consistent team in the division, the Twins. Just continue their home field domination in the Dome and pull out a mediocre road record and the division is sealed.

AL West:
1. A’s
2. Angels
3. Rangers
4. Mariners

I’m not sold on the Angels this year. In a division where youth combined with upgrades to the teams (see Rangers for youth and A’s for upgrades), it’s hard to back the Angels, who lost their closer and their star is just getting older and more injured. Therefore, it’s between the A’s and Rangers. A’s have some young arms and with Giambi and Holliday together, expect a lot more run support than in previous years. Rangers have always the hitting but lacked pitching. Honestly, it’s a tossup and will just back a team who plays in a pitchers park to help aid young arms.

AL Cy Young: John Lester
On the cusp of becoming a great starter. This will be the breakout year.

AL MVP: Justin Morneau
Solid, dependable, hard-working guy who quietly leads his team to an AL central title.

AL Coach of the Year: Bob Geren
Winning the AL west through balancing and managing his young pitching staff and going to the bullpen exactly when he needs to.

Nice for other people to weight in, baseball fans and baseball bettors alike.

–Valdez

Hey pwners.

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while.   School, work, and being a megadonk and losing my password combined for nothing recent.

I know…all joning is welcomed.

But I wanted to talk candidly about gambling.  A lot of people are afraid to with the perception of being deemed a loser or poor money manager or just scared of the stigma that comes along with betting. 

I was excited for the NCAA tournament.  I had about 22 bets placed, ranging anywhere from a simple $10 bet to $150 (I had the roll, so I could afford to do it and as a college kid $150 is substantial to me).  Needless to say, I went about 50 percent but lost a majority of my higher unit wagers.  My only saving grace was hitting on Cleveland St. plus the points and moneyline.

The Junkies mentioned briefly on the show how I took a break from the sweet sixteen round of the tournament. 

That’s the point I want to stress.

Sometimes you have to take a couple steps back to regroup.  That’s exactly what I did.  It’s so stupid to chase lost money.  After losing a chunk of my roll, I wanted to get it back badly and but knew that I’d have to nickel and dime to try and build it back up.  However, as a gambler at heart, I knew that once I placed one bet, I’d put more on it than usual or want to make another bet I didn’t 100 percent support.

I wanted the steam to cool off before getting back on the horse.  Believe it or not, sports gamblers can steam just as much as poker players and instead of playing every marginal hand aggressively, we look at the board and pick every game we have a lean on.  In fact, steaming in sports betting may be even worse than poker since the opposition (the book) can’t fold the game to you.

A lot of my time was spent going over some of the games I played and why I liked that side or total so much.  I reviewed stats and even watched repeats of the games.  Compare it to a poker nerd writing down every single hand he was in and going back and replaying it in his head.

Nevertheless, I’m back and the break helped me (and Lurch) out.  I’ve been riding my Nova and Michigan St. to the Final Four (see Junks podcasts if you don’t believe) for some ATS and moneyline wins.  I’ve even been hitting on the women’s tournament at a positive clip.  It feels good to be back and even better that the roll is getting back to what it was the right way, not the chaser’s way. 

Baylor/Penn St. tonight.  Haven’t looked into just yet.  Waiting to see how the line moves and will post my play (if I have one) later.

12-8 +6.3 units ytd

Two home teams laying points to road dogs coming off huge emotional wins. This is situational handicapping 101, boys.

Iowa State -3.5 2 units
Iowa -3 2 units

Penn State wins a shocker at home against Illinois on a last second shot.

Texas Tech stuns Kansas after Voiskul and the rest of the team go insane from behind the arc. However, it took a miracle and all the pistons firing to beat the Jayhawks. Keep in mind that this Red Raider team can’t win on the road. I understand that Iowa State isn’t the best team in the Big 12 but think they can handle business against a flat Texas Tech squad.

Iowa matches up well against the Nittnany Lions. A very defensive oriented team who likes to control the tempo and pace of play. They have been playing well in their last couple of games but even though are losses, consider them moral victories against decent competition.

Good luck and remember, it’s the best time of the year, fellas!

Not forcing any plays tonight, sorry.  Deciding to carry my momentum into the weekend instead of Friday night.  It seem like I kill during the week but my selections are lackluster on Saturday’s and Sunday’s.  I’ve tried limiting plays, picking tons of games I have vibes on but the harder I work the more my profit during the week is cut down.

But anyways, Thursday night was a big night for me (and Lurch, too!) .    I’ve been doing pretty well with my over/under formula where I come up with a raw number based on pace of play and field goal percentage then adjust based on what I see from other trends and statistics. 

Only one of the plays was posted.

12-8 +6.3 units ytd

It’s the best time of the year!  Just wish I was in Vegas for it.  Enjoy the games.

Didn’t get a chance to post, so not sure if that counts for or against me. You can decide
Posted record: 11-8 +4.5 units

Tonight:
Xavier -9.5 2 units

X-men at home have an opportunity to seal the Atlantic 10 regular season title at home. Dayton is no pushover but Xavier has had lots of time to prep for this game. When laying double digits, Xavier is 7-3 ATS this season while Dayton has been in a ATS funk going 2-5 in the last 7 contests. The only thing that scares me is that Xavier has been shakey this year. They have sports of inconsistency, but for a game like this and the amount of time to prepare for Dayton, I’m comfortable laying the 10 at home.

Split last night going 2-2, dropping .4 units. Think it makes the posted record 12-10, which is hovering around +1 unit.

Notes:
Baylor is awful. I looked too much into Abrams consussion. They are the most undisciplined team in the NCAA. Also, Citadel has been a ATS cash cow on the road this year. Ashame the regular season is coming to an end with them.

Tonight:
Wake Forest -1 (hook)
5 units

Terps coming back home and playing off of 2 days rest. Call it a square play all you want, but Wake is too much inside for the Terps. Look at what bigs have done against Maryland inside this year. Expect the same from Wake. Maryland season is this game, but just don’t think they have enough fuel to take on the Deac’s. The UNC and Duke efforts catch up to them on this one.

Being snowed in gives me an early start to Monday. I’ve also started doing spring training games but won’t track progress until regular season and college hoops is over.

Friday:
2 units:
Siena 85
Niagara 100 02/27/09(19:05 ET)
Niagara -3 (-105)

1-0 +1.8 units, 7-4 +4.2 units ytd

Saturday:
Duke 72
VirginiaTech 65 02/28/09(15:40 ET)
VirginiaTech +5.5

Pittsburgh 89
SetonHall 78 02/28/09(20:30 ET)
SetonHall +10

UofTexas 59
OklahomaSt 68 02/28/09(18:10 ET)
OklahomaSt -2

1-2 -2.2 units, 7-5 +2 units ytd

Sunday:
03/01/2009 – 12:10 PM CBB [840] TOTAL u133-110
(NORTH TEXAS vrs DENVER U)
Score: NORTH TEXAS(73) – DENVER U(59) WIN

Missouri 65
Kansas 90 03/01/09(14:05 ET)
Kansas -4.5

Providence 73
Rutgers 66 03/01/09(14:05 ET)
Providence -3 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

Maryland 71
NCState 60 03/01/09(19:50 ET)
NCState -4

OregonSt 69
Oregon 79 03/01/09(22:20 ET)
OregonSt +1.5

MichiganSt 74
Illinois 66 03/01/09(16:05 ET)
Illinois -1 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

3-3 -.6 units, 10-8 +1.4 units ytd

Notes:
Home favorites against teams ranked better have been hitting at a pretty good clip this year. Kansas, Ok. State, Niagra hit and Oregon would have hit had I played the correct side. Can’t believe they blew a 10 point half time lead.

Also, Seton Hall and Va. Tech were tough for me. Lose these both by a combined 2.5 points. Oh well, that’s gambling.

Also have noticedd that senior nights havent been a favorable aspect to handicap. You’d think more home dogs would win outright with a players last game for their school.

Tonight:
Baylor
Texas 03/02/09(21:05 ET)
Baylor +8

Davidson
Elon 03/02/09(19:00 ET)
Elon +14

Citadel
GeorgiaSouthern 03/02/09(19:30 ET)
Citadel -5 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

Villanova
NotreDame 03/02/09(19:05 ET)
NotreDame -3

Good luck, enjoy the games!

Looking to build a steady bankroll for the NCAA tournament. Going to document my quest. It will help give me analysis as to why I choose certain teams and better money management.

Thursday in review:
2 units:
WVirginia 61
Cincinnati 65 02/26/09(19:10 ET)
Cincinnati +4.5

UofArizona 53
WashingtonSt 69 02/26/09(21:00 ET)
WashingtonSt -2 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

Purdue 78
Michigan 87 02/26/09(21:10 ET)
Michigan +2.5

ArizonaSt 70
WashingtonU 73 02/26/09(23:10 ET)
WashingtonU -3.5

MemphisU 71
UAB 60 02/26/09(21:10 ET)
UAB +4.5

1 unit totals:

02/26/2009 – 04:10 PM CBB [779] TOTAL o145½-110
(WOFFORD vrs COLL CHARLESTON)
Score: WOFFORD(84) – COLL CHARLESTON(86) WIN

02/26/2009 – 05:10 PM CBB [730] TOTAL u126-110
(NEW ORLEANS U vrs ARKANSAS LR)
Score: NEW ORLEANS U(54) – ARKANSAS LR(80) LOSE

02/26/2009 – 06:10 PM CBB [746] TOTAL u139-110
(MEMPHIS U vrs UAB)
Score: MEMPHIS U(71) – UAB(60) WIN

02/26/2009 – 07:40 PM CBB [767] TOTAL o137-110
(SAINT MARYS CA vrs PEPPERDINE)
Score: SAINT MARYS CA(62) – PEPPERDINE(49) LOSE

02/26/2009 – 08:10 PM CBB [771] TOTAL o141½-110
(ARIZONA ST vrs WASHINGTON U)
Score: ARIZONA ST(70) – WASHINGTON U(73) WIN

TOTAL: 6-4 +2.4 units

Got really lucky with that Washington/ASU total. Game had to go into overtime for it to hit, not to mention a desperation three at the end to cover.

Also, I should have bought the hook in the same game. Mistake on my part. Whenever laying points, always buy the half point. It kills you when you lose by it and worth the -120 line.

Also, really disappointed in the UAB collapse. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Memphis shoots 90% from the FT line? UAB’s star player goes scoreless as well. Not too impressed with Memphis and makes me sratch my head when Seth Davis said they could be a #1 seed (maybe it’s from other teams beating up on each other).

The totals are typically 1 unit a piece since they are based on a formula/system that I run numbers through.
Looking ahead to the weekend, Terps lose at N.C. State in the biggest let down game this season. Line should look like Terps +2 and public will hop all over due to the UNC win and great Duke effort.

Tonight:

2 units:

Siena
Niagara 02/27/09(19:05 ET)
Niagara -3 (-105)

Tomorrow is a big day. I’ll find time to post plays and reviews late afternoon.