OK, this hand still irritates me. I am not sure if the read matters all that much given my stack size, but he was a loose aggressive player who generally raised my BB from the SB everytime the pot was unopened. I laid most of them down, shoved on 1 with a big pair, and then this happened:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop | saw showdown
Hero (BB) (t4665)
UTG (t18536)
UTG+1 (t35768)
MP1 (t10770)
MP2 (t6830)
MP3 (t21332)
CO (t3882)
Button (t18455)
SB (t12609)
Hero’s M: 3.89
Preflop: Hero is BB with A
, 2
7 folds, SB bets t1000, Hero raises to t4615 (All-In), SB calls t3615
Flop: (t9680) A
, 2
, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t9680) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t9680) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t9680
Results:
SB had J, 3 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had A, 2 (two pair, Aces and Kings).
Outcome: SB won t9680
1) Do I ever fold this here given my hand and stack size (M=3)?
My answer: I only have 7BB left after I post the next SB. I fold to only the tightest players.
2)Do I ever fold here given my read?
My answer: 100% shove Q hi or better. He was weak.
3)Is the villians raise ok given my M of 3 and his M of 10?
My answer: I can’t completely object to his steal but I do not think his stack was large enough for that move if I shoved.
4)Is his call good?
My answer: He was almost getting 2-1 (37%) on his money. He risked 31% of his remaining stack with J 3. Am I wrong for thinking that risking 31% of your stack with J 3 is loose? Does J 3 really have better than 37% equity against my range? Shiiiit at best he has a 40% chance of winning. He can’t think 10 hi is in my range. I need to get poker stove because this guy acted like I was an idiot…and I am thinking…you just got 38% of your stack AIPF with J3?
I think the raise was poor and the call was poorer. He turned a total bluff into a J 3 call for value. Thoughts?
4 Responses to “suck my nuts hand review”
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My thoughts:
1) Is his raise OK? Definitely. His raise was not “poor” as you call it. If he’s been raising your BB every time and you keep folding, it’s an automatic raise for him with ATC. He should keep doing it until you play back at him, which you did. If you want to avoid this in the future – don’t let him bully you around like that for that long.
2) When you did play back at him – he should have folded J-3. That being said, he could have rationalized it with the thought of “well, I’ve been doing this to him too much, so he could be shoving here with ATC” as opposed to putting you on a particular range. That’s probably what went through his head, and somehow figured his J-3s was up against any random cards as opposed to something premium.
3) Do you ever fold there given your reads? No. Ace high probably beats his range a good part of the time. But with an Ace in the hole, you could have attempted a stop-and-go. Just flat call the raise and re-evaluate on the flop. He might have tried to put you all-in on the flop, and you would have been very happy to oblige. Otherwise, he might have checked to you on the ace-high flop and you could have taken it down. This deviates slightly from the “I’ve got less than 10BB, so it’s all-in or fold time” strategy, but for your particular reads I think it could have been utilized.
Thanks for the insight. You are right his raise steal attempt isn’t horrible on merit alone. I very much agree with you about pressuring folders but I only “mostly” folded. I had called/played back at him enough for most people to not attempt that move with weak holdings. Plus I had 3bet shoved a few times prior to this. The reason I called it poor is situational. I had played back at him a couple times and at this time I was super short stacked and his M was only 10…you shouldn’t be playing too many games with an M of 10. Another reason I called his play poor was that if he folded he would only have an M of 5 with the blinds going up.
Thanks, I definitely like the situational short stack stop and go here but an M of 3 is too short for reevaluating. If I flat I shove flop 100%. If I call/fold I am dead in the water with only 6bbs with escalating blinds.
Does J 3s have equity against my range?
With antes out there, and the fact you are under 10BB’s, I’d be shoving J3s there from the SB. You might fold as much 85-90% of your hands to a shove there for your tournament life, and even when you call he might have more than 30% equity against your strong range. So as long as you aren’t calling a shove very light, it’s an easy shove spot for him. The lighter you are calling his shoves the less likely he should shove J3s, as most of his equity is fold equity, not equity when it gets all in.
The minraise is a bad idea though, because it allows you to call in position getting 4.4:1 on the call, meaning you shouldn’t really be folding any hand, and if you shove rather than call/fold, then he has to fold his J3s, as he won’t have enough equity to make it a +EV call, though it is reasonably close. He actually nearly pot commits himself with the minraise, even with a horrible hand like J3s, which makes minraising J3s even more stupid.
In any case, you played it fine. It might be hard to think you are getting him to fold many hands (especially after you see him call with J3
), but given your reads, you’ll be getting it in good a lot anyway.
Agreed the shove is the best play by him. My only additional thought is that if he was aware he had a loose image he should think I am calling wider. I want to see these numbers.brb.
OK, he has 34.7% equity against 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo=30.3% I have called wider and tighter than this…
69.7% of the time he wins +1200.
34.7%* 30.3% = 10.5% of the time called and wins 450 ante + 4615 = 5065
19.8% of the time called and loses 4665
69.7%*1200 = 836.4
10.2%*5065 = 516.6
19.8%*4665 = 923.67
836.4+516.6-923.7 = 429.3 or slightly less than 1BB…