OK, this hand still irritates me. I am not sure if the read matters all that much given my stack size, but he was a loose aggressive player who generally raised my BB from the SB everytime the pot was unopened. I laid most of them down, shoved on 1 with a big pair, and then this happened:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (BB) (t4665)
UTG (t18536)
UTG+1 (t35768)
MP1 (t10770)
MP2 (t6830)
MP3 (t21332)
CO (t3882)
Button (t18455)
SB (t12609)

Hero’s M: 3.89

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 2
7 folds, SB bets t1000, Hero raises to t4615 (All-In), SB calls t3615

Flop: (t9680) A, 2, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t9680) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t9680) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t9680

Results:
SB had J, 3 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had A, 2 (two pair, Aces and Kings).
Outcome: SB won t9680

1) Do I ever fold this here given my hand and stack size (M=3)?

My answer:  I only have 7BB left after I post the next SB. I fold to only the tightest players. 

2)Do I ever fold here given my read?

My answer: 100% shove Q hi or better. He was weak.

3)Is the villians raise ok given my M of 3 and his M of 10?

My answer: I can’t completely object to his steal but I do not think his stack was large enough for that move if I shoved.

4)Is his call good?

My answer: He was almost getting 2-1 (37%) on his money. He risked 31% of his remaining stack with J 3. Am I wrong for thinking that risking 31% of your stack with J 3 is loose?  Does J 3 really have better than 37% equity against my range? Shiiiit at best he has a 40% chance of winning.  He can’t think 10 hi is in my range. I need to get poker stove because this guy acted like I was an idiot…and I am thinking…you just got 38% of your stack AIPF with J3?

I think the raise was poor and the call was poorer.  He turned a total bluff into a J 3 call for value. Thoughts?

I have been getting deeper and deeper lately. In the last 2 weeks playing a very limited schedule (16 mtts) I have 5 top 50s in 1000 plus field tournaments. Top 50s don’t really pay shit though, you have to get to the FT.  Last night I did although it wasn’t without drama. I was chip leader for almost all of the final 2 tables.  I was CL when we reached the FT. This tourny was mine. Only 1 of the other 8 players had game and when he went out in 6th I thought that the 8.6k for first was mine to lose. I was CL with 6 left. Well it was mine to lose and I did lose it lol. I was running the math last night and I am just sick to my stomach how unlucky I was.

I am CL sitting on 1.5 mill in chips on BB. I get QQ. Button open raises 3 BB for 72k. He has about 700k behind. I raise to 222k he snap shoved with JJ I call QQ and he rivered a J. He scooped about 1/2 my stack. 2 more people are eliminated and then this…oh by the way this is the same villian that tore my heart out with the river J.

24+2 tourny 74 left 72 cash…I get it in 3 ways for 56BB and I am holding off 5 outs for 56BB! FUUUUUCK!

Went 1-6 in MTTs on Saturday for $66 in cashes. Over $150 in buyins. FTP $24+2 at 6 and 8pm and the $3r at 830 and the Stars $5r at 6pm, $5r+25a at 730 and the $27.50 at 8pm. In the FTP 6pm I was sitting on 15bb in the SB on the bubble with KK and the button raise shoved 25BBs with Q10o. I snap called and the board ran Q1010xx and I was bubbled yet again.  I got into the 3rd hour of all 6 tournies though.

Went 0-4 in 45 SNGs. Twice I lost huge 18k+ races with QQ when approaching the FTs.  First one was against AQ and the other was JJ. Having 20k+ is a HUGE advantage at those FTs. There are only 67k chips in play. One of the biggest mistakes I see in these tournies is when the big stacks overplay their stack size when the blinds escalate.  They might be the CL, but they only have 20bb and several others are over 10bb. They often get too loose and end up getting it in against a short stack either bad or really bad or they fold away 15% of their stack to a reraise pre. I must admit, I do appreciate having those types at the FT with me.

I always obsess over bubble bustouts. Sitting on 13BB 2 spots from the money in middle position with A10 off.  There is 2100 in the pot. I think open shoving is the right move to get deep. How marginal a spot is this? 5 players behind 2 spots from the money.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

MP3 (t38138)

CO (t13587)

Button (t24621)

SB (t18610)

BB (t34561)

UTG (t7701)

UTG+1 (t39200)

MP1 (t24474)

Hero (MP2) (t10771)

Hero’s M: 5.13

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, 10

3 folds, Hero bets t10671 (All-In), 2 folds, Button raises to t24521 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t23442) A, Q, 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t23442) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t23442) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t23442

Results:

Button had A, A (full house, Aces over nines).

Hero had A, 10 (two pair, Aces and tens).

Outcome: Button won t23442

I played 2 45 SNGs while playing in the stars 70k, tilt 50/50 and the $3 rebuy and I took a 4′th for $108. I ran my AA into A7 off (silly me) and of course he bagged 4 cards to a flush when the board ran out. Oh well gg me.

0-3 in MTTs $122 in buy ins. -$122

1-2 in SNGs $52 in buy ins  and $108 in prizes.  +56

-$66 on the day

Out of nowhere…I have hit my stride . Everyone knows what that is…it’s when you call short stack shoves  with A8 and they turn over A3 or when you call AK with 83 off getting 3.5-1 preflop or when lots of other marginal spots and decisions hold up for you. I swear 70/30s crush my soul. I hate 3 outers.

I am playing more laggy lately so I should like them since it will be me catching that ace. Sometimes people laugh at me when I get called jamming  Q9o in the BB for 15BBs after a bunch of weak tight limpers and popping a Q to suddenly have 35BBs (called by 24BB stack with 55 in this case), but I let them laugh because +EV is +EV. I have been called as light as 7 8 suited in those situations (I had 99) so you obv have to assess the opponents and their stacks. Is it results oriented to know that jamming will scoop you the pot ~3/4 of the time increasing your stack 33% each time it’s not called and you still win ~25% of the time when you do get called? What is a fair calling range? Maybe 88+, AJs AQo. OBV everything is approximate. Most of those hands would be raised preflop so its unlikely the opener is holding better than that. Most of the other callers would raise the limper with premium holdings.

I did a 6 table $26 45 seat SNG session yesterday. $156 in buy-ins 2 cashes for $346 in 2 hours of play. I cashed 11 of my last 31  for a cash rate of 35%. Sick and completely not-sustainble obv but so sweet. Average cash rate for 45 seat SNGs is 13%. I am running 22% for the year. I have been playing very aggressively, 3betting and jamming alot more than the past.  I am usually the most aggressive player at the table but it’s easy to spot any lagtards and play them tighter.

I made my nut in MTTs but the variance is cumbersome and tilting. I hate cash. Too boring. The 45 seat tournies are soft and have a lower variance and have proven to be profitable. I also seem to have developed a style that works good for this type of tourny and blind structure. I am more taggy in DS events waiting for big hands.

Only had time for 1 SNG session last night so I fired up 5 $26 45 seat SNGs. I had 1 cash for $270. I pwned my opponent heads up and had him 3 outs from the rail when I 3bet all in preflop for 30BB and he snap called my JJ with A4 offsuit. Of course he turned an ace to cripple me.  I’ll take 70% races all day long! He was just a lucky monkey NP. I will gladly take 100 more 70% races for first this year!

5 SNGs for $130. 1 cash for $270. $140 profit in 2 hours.

I am cashing 45 man SNGs at 22% and an ROI of 46% for the year.

Sunday was a bust  timewise but I got a lot of play in on Saturday.

I finally had a shot at a 4 figure score but I ended up 7th for about $650.  After folding away the chip lead down to the short stack I finally got it in A10 suited against AK. Can’t complain I hit alot of hands to get to the final table.  I also mini cashed in a rebuy and bubbled 2 other tournys.

I ended up playing 9 mtts for total buy in of $152. 2 cashes for $679

I played 15 $26 45 seat SNGs for total buy-in of $390. 6 cashes for $400. Ran HORRRRRRRRIBLE at Final tables. @$%#$^#@$%@#$@$^@$%#@. Was chip leader when bubble burst 3 times and finished no better than 4th.  6/15 cashes should show way more $$ than $400!

All in all not a bad grind for the weekend.  $537 profit over 12 hours.  

Results not typical.

Seems like forever since I played a full day’s schedule. Has to be at least 6 weeks. Chicks will do that to your weekends .

I’ve lined up 20+ MTTs this weekend, at least 4 tonight and 9 each Saturday and Sunday.  total buy in around $500.  My roll “aint what she used to be” .

I am also hoping to play about 36 $26 45 seat SNGs.

Oh and probably a handful of turbo qualifiers to the sunday majors…

I am eager to follow Mike Matusow’s and his new mantra of the power of positive thinking.

Fired up 4 $26 45 seat SNGs. 3 final  tables 2 cashes for a profit of $69 or $35/hour. 

Averaging $30/hour for the year when 4 tabling and $40+/hour when 6 tabling. I have a 19% ITM and an ROI of 50%.  I am 18% ITM and 39% ROI lifetime in $26 45 seat SNGs so I am not too far above expectation.

Going to start 6-8 tabling.