First things first, answer to my quiz.  Rocket science it may not be, but when you shove 98s in a HUSNG over someones wide button range, you are looking for a fold.  However this time we are called, and our chance of winning the all in when called by AKs is 37% and K5o 48%.  But given our plan is to get folds, we need to make sure he folds enough to make it profitable.  We thought he would fold a lot to shoves, but AKs was still a hand we didn’t think he’d ever fold.  But, we also didn’t think he’d call with K5o.  If he calls with K5o, he’s calling with practically all kings, all aces, and probably plenty of other hands.  This is a wide range of calling hands and really bad for 98s, as our fold equity shrinks down to not much, and since we are rarely favourite when called still, we end up in a -EV situation.

So the answer is K5o is worse for us, because we shouldn’t be shoving 98s if he will call with a large part of his button raising range, so we have made a long term error, regardless of our all in equity.  Getting called by AKs can be frustrating, but you really need to get over it.  We can’t win every hand, we can only attempt to make +EV plays.  And part of making some +EV plays is losing when villain has the top of his range.  If you never make a play because you could be called by better hands, then you’ll probably end up getting slaughtered in HU, and any other form of poker for that matter.

So far HU has been very good to me.  I’m trying HUSNG’s, and am crushing over a short sample, but I must admit my heart is longing for HU cash.  I often run to the cash tables and play regs, which is stupid really, but somewhat entertaining and hopefully educational.  I’ve been a bit lucky a couple of times to get dealt a couple of big hands just when I’m starting to get really stuck, and that’s really helped with my moods when quitting.  So far I’m up a decent amount in both forms of HU, and really feel like my skills are improving.  I’ve been 2 tabling HUSNG’s, but can’t really do that in cash yet for some reason.

If people were interested in the quiz let me know, otherwise I’ll just keep this blog to things that are on my mind.

I’ve decided to grind some HU, and more specifically HUSNG’s for now.  I am very tempted to grind HU cash, but the rake you pay and the lack of rakeback makes it a tough gig.  At least with SNG’s, if you have a decent edge, you have a ROI, and a good amount of rakeback too.  I don’t know, probably isn’t much in it, as cash players can just keep pounding on unfortunate suckers, especially when they start tilting off real cash.  I might investigate both, but for now I want to put in a few hundred SNG’s to see where I stand.

I’ve started at the $115 turbos, mainly because I have the bankroll, and I don’t feel outclassed by the regs (just yet).  I’ll be 2 tabling, and depending on how I go, will be aiming to either add more tables, or move up in stakes, but I’m comfortable with 2 tables right now.  35 SNG’s and I’m up a bit, but that’s obviously no sample size.

So spot quiz to see if anyone is actually out there.  HUSNG, blinds 25/50, effective stack 1000, villain is raising 60% of buttons to 150, generally playing TAG postflop, we look down at T9s, and decide to shove over his button raise.  Villain calls the shove.  What’s worse for us?  AKs or K5o?

It’s over.  It didn’t take long at all to be honest.  I’m pretty sure some of what I was going through was a pretty horrid downswing, but whatever it was, I’ve decided I want out.

Firstly, what happened?  Before the challenge officially started, I had a few nice days, so my bankroll was nice and solid for starting the challenge, and my mindset was strong.  Day 1 was really bad to me.  I got home and was tired and sick.  Then my computer didn’t want to load HEM, so basically I had to give up on any play, for if I did play I would have played bad.  I also decided to buy a new laptop, as I’ve been playing on my work computer and that hasn’t been working out too well lately.  So I researched a computer.  Day 2 I setup the new computer, and actually had everything working better than the old computer.  I put in a small session, got in a small win.   Day 3 I put in a bigger session and got crushed, not much fun.  Day 4 I put in the biggest session, was up about half way through, then got slaughtered, freefall.  I lost many buyin’s in mostly good spots to get money in, and either he had it, or was about to river it, often the latter.  I don’t even see a lot of this happening, as I’m acting on other tables, but looking in HEM afterwards, I feel I played very solid poker this week, at least in bigger pots, but just got nothing going my way.  I took the weekend off, and Sunday night played a little, was up some, but couldn’t find the urge to keep going, only 45 minutes in.

Instead I played some HU cash, and this was a bad idea.  Not only have I been multitabling like crazy, I’ve also been playing conservative 6 max style, so I really wasn’t ready for this.  However, surprisingly I crushed, and for 3 horus hovered between NL100 and NL400, just crushing regs the whole time.  I’m not talking about winning flips either, I’m talking about winning most of the smaller pots so I didn’t have to win big ones.  My style wouldn’t ahve worked as well against fish, but HU is certainly about varying your play depending on your opponent, and when ABC is going to make you a breakeven player, time to add in a few curveballs.  Pretty much all 5 opponents struggled with the curveballs, so maybe I was running well.  Very profitable night.

So it was a bad idea for a 3rd reason too.  Because in the back of my mind, I had been tempted to grind out HU cash recently, and running good/playing good would only fuel that idea, ending my VPP chase.  And it pretty much did.  Although, it was more like the nail in the coffin, as I’m not even sure I can profitably 18 table 6 max, even with more working at it.  I feel like I played really solid the last 2-3 weeks, and got very negative results.  So the idea was simple.  Keep to at least a breakeven player, making all the money off VPP’s.  I considered this a less stressful poker career, than wondering how to pay the bills when your winrate drops 1BB/100 hands.  However, even though I was playing so many hands, the downswings are still pretty brutal, and will probably be longer due to the low or non-existant winrate.

It’s not happening folks.  I’ll report back in a new blog soon with some new plans, and some useful tips about the poker mind too.

Well it’s here, as September 1 ticks over, play time is over, the challenge begins.  It’s pretty exciting, because challenges can be difficult to define in poker due to the effect of downswings and upswings over short term results and playing time.  So I tend to feel I wander aimlessly around the poker world usually.  But I feel good about setting hand goals, because you can really break that down into “today I must play X hands”.

So I’ve locked down my current VPP’s and bankroll amount in a spreadsheet, and I have my goals setup.  Between today and October 22nd, I’ll be trying to make at least 50K more VPP’s than I have right now.  It’s not insane volume, and fairly achievable, but it still means grinding out a lot of hands in little time, so it’s by no means a simple task.  And if achieved, I think it proves I can play the hands needed to make supernova elite next year.  The other side of the goal is to not lose money, which is probably going to be the hardest part.  It’s tough, because I know I need more practice at this to iron out some mistakes I’m making, but lets face it, I don’t have a lot of time to decide my 2010 plans, as there is a real family and workplace relying on this decision.  At this stage I couldn’t even make a guess as to which way this would all end up, which is pretty crazy.  All I know is my mind is focused on crushing this, so I think I’ll be giving it the best shot I can.

So to kick this thing off, some completely meaningless stats.  50K VPP’s over 39 days of play (I won’t play weekends, family time).  Around 110K hands at NL200 6 max.  At 2 hours a night, approximately 1400 hands an hour.  Should clear close to $3K worth of bonuses.

I don’t see much of a need for a daily breakdown or anything, but I’ll try to blog at least once a week as to how I’m tracking, and may keep blogging about some general poker stuff that’s on my mind too.

Well, it’s certainly been an interesting few days.  Basically shortly after thinking about the supernova elite chase I went into hospital for a small surgery.  This only fuelled things, as I used my free time to look at every different angle bar one of this crazy idea, and I got pretty pumped about it.  The one I didn’t have covered was basically doing it, playing.  Since coming out of hospital, things haven’t gone great.  My health is mediocre, as I’ve got some sort of infection due to surgery causing me a bit of pain.  Plus every time I sit down to play I am getting completely crushed at the tables.

There comes a point in poker where you don’t doubt your abilities any more, and put short term success or failure down to variance in stead of questioning your style of play.  So when you fire up 16-20 tables and lose a lot session after session, you again feel that uncertainty whether what you are doing is good.  I feel poker stupid all of the sudden again.  With that said, I’m still not sure whether my losses are strictly variance, bad play due to lack of good poker or a mix of the two.

So far it’s gone like this.  I played the first 3 or 4 sessions with really bad results.  All of them saw me run bad equity wise, but even my EV was -$.  I started to think it would be too hard, so multi-tabled some SNG’s thinking they might be the answer to SNE freedom.  In short after a little more research, SNG’s are overgrinded already.  It’s close to impossible for decent regs to maintain a +ve ROI, and the games really aren’t running much anymore, so I pretty quickly gave up on that idea.  One highlight was having 24 tables going at once, between $27 and $60 9 man SNG’s.  It was going well until I timed out on one table, then I kind of lost my momentum and timed out of at least 3 whole SNG’s, and missed several hands in others.  I will have to learn not to lose it when I time out doing this.

But I felt the need to try 6 max once more, and have played 3 sessions since.  The first I felt a lot more comfortable.  I have my HUD and Table Ninja setup well now, and I definitely felt a little more comfortable making quick decisions, rather than being rushed into making bad calls and folds.  I started getting good at checking effective stacks and HUD stats before making each meaningful decision, and felt good about my play.  I can’t take notes yet, but I might start doing that in HEM after play I think.  Unfortunately, I ran absolutely horrible once more and lost a lot of money.  Looking over big pots in HEM, I don’t really feel too bad about any of the big pots, and my luck was horrible, either getting it in good or getting sucked out on a lot.  But I actually felt I wasted a lot of money making bad cbets or steals.  I ran way below EV too (in fact in every sessions since starting this SNE chase I ran below EV, which is weird).

Feeling horrible after losing so much, I might consider giving up, but something keeps me going.  I almost feel like an addicted gambler, but I know in my heart that I have this game beat if I put my mind to it.  So I played a shorter session, with 12 tables, and I crushed.  Of course, not in the way that I actually made money, but I really felt like I played very well, and my EV was at least +VE.  12 tables suddenly feels like a breeze, but it’s not even that.  After looking at HEM again and again and again the last few days, I feel like my brain is really soaking the SNE challenge in, so I’ve started to adjust my game a bit.

For my last session I decided to start with 20 tables, but remove tables if they seem too grindy or if my stack gets too big vs mainly regs.  So in other words, start with 20, reduce it down to around 16 in the first hour, then reduce it down to around 10-12 after another hour.  This way I’m 20 tabling when focused, 16 tabling after a little bit and getting closer to 12 tables when my concentration is fading.  I felt I played really well again, and finally brought home a win.  I still ran way below EV and should have book a huge win if my huge favourites didn’t get sucked out on in big pots, but I’m still very happy, and feel like this thing is back on track.  This is good timing, because I was really starting to doubt myself.  I still hope this wasn’t short term variance and the other sessions were a real indicator, but it certainly doesn’t feel like it.

So where to now?  It’s still August, so I’m still working through the kinks technically, and none of this counts towards my goals.  But they are helping to shape the goals.  September and October are game time, and I will really put in a lot of volume and the results will 100% matter, because losses will mean I’m stuck in the 9-5 grind for a while yet, while any sort of gain will mean I’m quitting my job and doing this poker thing for a living.

I think after a decent amount of poker, I’ve come to a crossroad.  This game is a tough one, and if you don’t give it everything, you really can’t expect much back.  So while I’m grinding away a 9-5 job, I can’t really give as much attention to poker as is needed.  I probably play about 8-10 hours a week, which usually means I go through long downswings and upswings.  A lot of my free time, and even work time comes down to thinking about the game too.  Basically I feel like I’m putting in about all I can afford to, and it’s still not quite enough to get me where I want to get to.

The other night I was close to quitting.  I’m actually running OK lately, but still just the thought of another year of working full time while playing poker and it doesn’t sit well.  Something has to give.  Now obviously, if I played for a living, I could afford more time for poker that it needs.  Or maybe I just stop it now and call it quits.  So I got out trusty Excel.  I’ve done $/hr calculations before, and I’ve worked out that those were pretty unrealistic looking at it now.  They assumed glorious winrates, and long hours playing each day, things that I know better of now.  Realistically, I thought I could quit my job around NL100-NL200, but I think NL400 or crushing NL200 is about the time most could consider quitting decent day jobs.

So my mind took a slightly different turn.  I’ve noticed grinders talk about Supernova Elite before, but never gave it much attention.  Who wants to play poker 10 hours a day.  Well, now I look at it again, and did some numbers around it.  I’ve been playing up to 12 tables on odd occasions, and sure enough playing something like 16 tabling might get you there without all that many hours per week.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s a huge grind, but certainly doable.  I’m not 100% convinced my numbers are accurate just yet, but I’ve set a few trial goals.

The basic premise is this.  While Pokerstars starts off a pretty average rakeback provider, they soon step it up if you are reaching Supernova Elite.  By the time you reach 1 million points in a year, you’ve made over $90K in bonus cash, a free package to a big live event, and entry to the WCOOP main event worth $5K.  The next year around it’s more like $115K in bonuses due to the extra FPP’s SNE’s make, and the same two bonuses if you reach 1 million points again.  As I said, my early indications are that you could work around 5-6 hours a day, 5 days a week if 16 tabling NL200.  By no means easy, but with that many bonuses, you just need to make a very small winrate to make poker a very profitable year.  Obviously, the downside is you could easily lose money playing that much poker.

So I have some goals set out for my current free time.  I want to push myself hard, because if I do 1 hour a day and then quit my job, I think it would be quite a difficult task come January.  So I plan to play 16+ tables over 2 hours each night.  This isn’t a tentative goal, it’s a do or die goal.  If I can’t do at least that, I have no hope in grinding that much next year.  I also have to profit.  My first few tests are going pretty badly, and I’m a long way from profit, but as we know poker is a very tough game to judge by too early.  All I can say is I definitely made more mistakes than usual, and my results are probably reflecting this as well as not running great.  I plan to keep mucking around with setups (HUD’s and TableNinja) for the rest of August and then Septermber and October it’s live.  I’ll set definite goals for the time when I go on holiday in late October, and by then variance should have sorted out my results too, and I can see exactly how things are going.

Wish me luck, I’ll let you know how it’s going.

How to get full blown tilt without a hand being dealt.
*  Open Full Tilt, with 2 nights left in the month, need to play both to get Iron Man status, Happy Hour about to start.
*  Site down, goto website, it’s down for maintenance.
*  Check back periodically for 2 hours, Happy Hour is over, tilting slightly, but site is back up
*  Software won’t update to new client, gets stuck after saying new client found, error found
*  Eventually give up and goto website to try to download full software again
*  Around 8 times software gets stuck downloading at some point.  At least 3 hours have gone and I want to go to bed, but site is up apparently and I want to get that 200 FTP points, should take about 40 minutes 8 tabling NL200, so I continue
*  Download eventually makes it all the way through, it’s now at least 3 hours since I tried to play some poker, tilt lessening to see software coming up
*  Site taking minutes to load, tilt right back up again, close program and try again
*  It goes just as slow, but I leave it, takes 10 minutes to load client (I’ve timed this, it literally takes 9-11 minutes between when I click the icon and when I can choose my first table to play on)
*  Poker software is ready to use, around 3 1/2 hours later, but I’m in full blown tilt before a hand is played.

And ome post tilt madness:
*  I made the 200 points, and somehow profited from that 40 minute session, got to bed at around 12:30am after starting the poker client around 8pm.
*  The client right to this minute still takes 10 minutes to load, and I get a little tilted every time.
*  Poker client freezes all tables several times during play (perhaps once an hour) costing me $100’s in equity with hands in play that I can’t do anything with.
*  Support gives me a rediculous reason for the problems I’ve been having, blaming my internet connection.  Hmmmm.  Internet working + FTP working fine.  FTP does huge software update, nothing changes with my internet.  Internet still working fine, FTP is now crap.  Obviously my fault.
*  I quit Full Tilt, and am currently trying to grind a Euro site, though the software and player pool will take some getting used to.  I may play Pokerstars for a while to clear their new $300 reload, maybe.

I still have half my BR on Full Tilt, half (actually more now after winning a bit) on OnGame, but I’m really unsure what to plan to do from here.  It’s really tough to even 5-6 table with the average OnGame software, but at least it’s not buggy.  Pokerstars is an option, but it’s rakeback is less than half given what I play and the fact I don’t like how you only get decent rakeback by playing their site exclusively all year long.  I think I’ll grind the Euro site until Full Tilt get their shit sorted, and I’ll judge how much I like the Euro site at that point.  So far the fields are far softer than Full Tilt (30% seeing flop tables are tight), but there is plenty I don’t like.  Still it’s all just one long grind, so who cares right?

I’m going to come back to talk a little more about ABC poker, as it’s still well and trully on my mind.  But for now just a little tidbit about my current results.  I don’t generally like to whine about variance and results, but it’s still really interesting to me.

So a few nights ago, I took my most confident shot yet.  I’d been playing well at NL200, but not running really good this night, so I decided to 4 table NL400 for a while.  I played a little tighter than normal, mainly because I don’t know how loose people are going to 3 bet, or how much more they will try to outplay me using position and aggression than NL200 players.  However, it went well, and I finished the session with a record high bankroll.  People definitely tried to outplay me more, but I made some hands, which obviously is great if people are trying to outplay me.  Not many horrible players there that night.

Next night I start at NL200 again, and about an hour later I find myself taking another shot at NL400.  What follows was sickening.  I ran 8 BI (buyins) below expectation in less than an hour.  What does this mean?  If I get it in with QQ vs AK preflop with 100BB’s each, I’m 55% favourite or I have 55% equity in the pot.  So if I win I win 2 BI’s when my QQ holds, I’m actually running about 90BB’s above expectation, as he’ll win 45% in the long run.  If I lose, I’m 1100BB’s below expectation.  So in less than an hour, only 4 tabling, I lost 800BB more than I should have in the long run.  And it trully felt like it.  I was OK with it until the last couple of horror stories unfolded, but then I went on massive tilt and had to quit.  Like kicking the air and slamming things into furniture, gotta love anger   Nothing damaged fortunately.  I was almost scared to look at the Cashier, because I knew I’d just lost a tonne of BI’s at the higher level, but I had to know.  It was pretty gross to see how much money was missing that was there just 50 minutes before hand.  Interestingly, I calmed down way quicker than I thought I would, grinded some of it back at NL200 and quit not too upset about it all.  I even had 2 days off (I don’t play between Friday night and Sunday night at all) and had no issues on the weekend with losing so much that night.  This makes me really pleased, because all too often, a nasty night like that effects how I feel for the next day or so, but I honestly had a great weekend, and didn’t let it affect me at all.

Last night I started at NL200 again, and again after a decent session, fired up some NL400 tables.  Last night I still managed to run absolutely crap.  I almost instantly lost 3 BI’s with an overpair vs flush draw, AA vs QQ pre flop and KK vs JJ preflop.  Why at NL400?  Fortunately, there were fish everywhere last night, and I managed to stack a few of them back, and outflipped a reg, to be back in the postive for the session by a bit, and moving up ever closer to my record high again.  I was really pleased with how many brain dead donks there were there last night, some of them I’m sure would not be able to beat any level the way they played.  I have no problems playing that limit with this many fish around, but obviously still feel a bit outclassed if it’s just regs.

Anyway, I might continue to take shots.  I can’t afford to go on a really big downswing, but I really have to get used to the $’s, players and general tendancies of the level before calling it home, so I want to play more NL200 than 400, but will not be afraid to jump in and play if I’m feeling good or I think there might be a few fish about.

I’ve got to thinking about ABC poker.  Pros often tell people that at lower stakes playing tight is the best way to win.  It seems like a simple theory.  If you are often holding better hands than your opponents when you see a flop, you should win a lot more times.  But when you see guys down there playing the LAG style, they seem to be cleaning up sometimes, so you often wonder whether tight is right, even at the lower stakes.

Well, just for a second, think about that NL1000 pro coming back to NL50 to make a video.  He wants to display how to win playing a tight style.  So he raises good hands, plays position and plays straight forward postflop.  Do you think it is possible a newer player can pick up these tips and emulate this style well?  Not really.  Most of what makes this guy a pro is he has a great idea about how to play the game well on every street, and against every type of opponent.  He has tonnes of experience, can hand read like a machine, and has explored a lot of poker theories probably with the help of other good players too.  There is no chance a newer player trying to play ABC will be able to understand properly when to make those big calls, folds and bets as well as the pro.  So the pro will crush the game playing tight, while the newer player will make a tonne of postflop mistakes and be slightly +EV or maybe even -EV if he hasn’t grasped the concepts well.

Basically, what I’m trying to say is ABC poker will be enough to crush the lower stakes games, at least until NL200 from what I’ve experienced, but realistically only if you have very good ideas about why you are playing hands, when to bet and when to fold.  It is far more important to build up good ideas about how to play the game, and good hand reading skills than it is to work out whether you want to play a LAG or a TAG style preflop.  The more skills you build up of course, the more you start to push barriers, which might include playing more hands preflop.

My tips right now on how to do this might be to put a lot of time in doing equity equations against a range of hands (not just the hand someone showed down) and trying to work out the most +EV way to play certain hands against a range.  Also playing games like heads up cash, where you get to play a lot of postflop poker can really help open your eyes to different ways to play hands, which can help you get more value and find more +EV bluffs when playing ring games.

I’m going to go along with the theme of the 2yo, because I think this is a very interesting theme.  Think of a person who has never played a hand of holdem poker.  This is the perfect idea of a newborn baby to the game.  Everything they learn in the first hour, week, month, etc is all completely new to them, and a lot of things will just go clear over their head, no matter how smart they are.  Every player of a new sport, or new endeavour has pretty much experienced this.  You start off the donk, that’s all there is to it.

Interestingly, poker already differentiates itself right here.  A donk can win a hand of poker.  A donk can win a game of poker.  A donk can’t win a game of golf against a much better player, at least just short of a miracle.  Luck plays a much bigger part of our game than more mainstream sports, and the while the differences between a good player and a great player seem like black and white to me, for your average poker fan watching a pro lose a big pot to an amateur on TV, it sometimes seems anyone can win in this game.  Fortunately (or unfortunately for some), this is far from true, and if you give the pro enough time against the amateur, he will tear apart that amateur, for any amount of money the amateur brings to the table.

Where things start to fall in line with normal sports again is when you compare long term success in sports and poker.  Sports obviously require a great level of skill to be successful at the elite levels, and so does poker.  So it shouldn’t be that surprising that you have to do more than grind for a year, spend $30/ month on a video training site and suddenly you’ll be grinding high stakes cash games.  IT IS HARD.  There is a much longer period than people give credit for, where you are a donk.  Then there is a much longer period where you are OK, but by no means good yet.  Think about it.  When you first started folding Q7o, you thought it was going to print you money playing tight.  When you first started raising rather than limping you thought you were close to cracking the game.  When you heard about playing position and cbetting, you started planning out your retirement from your day job, as you only needed to learn a few more things, move up 2 more levels and you’ll be grinding a living at poker.

The fact is though, that these skills are something high stakes winners learned a long time ago.  Not only that, but they know and understand those concepts with 5 times more detail than you.  They also understand in definite detail, a heap of concepts you’ve only heard about and don’t understand at all.  Then they understand concepts you haven’t even heard of yet.  I mean you watch a video with great content about a subject you don’t know much about.  Most players might watch a video, forget half the content by the end of it, and get out and play 5 minutes later hoping the video somehow helped them.  And even if you sit down, noting down key points, investigating those with spreadsheets and trully trying to understand the concepts, high stakes winners still know it better.

There is some point to all this.  It’s that even though we hear about some player crushing the game 12 months after starting, or some guy running $50 up to $100K in 6 months, the reality for most people is they need to work very very hard to get the necessary skills to crush poker in this way.  For most it just won’t happen.  Then amongst the few who it will happen to, some will get there quickly, while others have to work extra hard for many more years to get there.  Just like you need to work very hard to crush at golf, tennis or chess.  Some will do it quickly, some will grind the sports for years.  If you think you are good but the only reason you aren’t winning big wads of cash is luck or because the games are too tough, ask yourself what you are doing so much better than your opponents.  Good players can answer this, and great players can answer this in detail.  I’ve heard the level of detail high stakes winners can get into about decisions on the felt, and it’s frightening.  To me it looks like a donkish raise, but in their description of the events, you get lost 4 times and still don’t understand it in the end.  But it’s obvious they are right and you know nothing.  I can’t obviously vouch for all high stakes winners, but I think the mediocre poker players out there would be stunned how far behind they are if a check list of current skills was easy to print out.

But you know what?  While my 2yo brain may not be as advanced as some luck-box who just gets every concept 100% without effort, or all the other guys that have put in the years of hard work, it’s still exciting to think about how far there is to go for me.  It is very, very difficult to put in that hard work, but it’s exciting watching your progress from a donk to a decent player, and I think it serves as inspiration to keep on fighting through depressing downswings and donk moves.

Well, I’ve been playing for 2 years now, and I really think I’ve just started putting in some of the effort necessary to win at this game.  I’m a long way from crushing, but I’m excited about where I can go from here.  I honestly look forward to the challenges and hard times, just as I do the revelations and upswings.

My goal is to keep working and get there eventually, whenever that happens to be for me.