This hand ocurred a couple of weeks ago. I was totally befuddled with what he had. First, what do you think he has? Second, what can I have done differently up to this point? Third, should I call, raise or fold?
Here is the hand…
Full Tilt Poker Game #13009246029: $100 Beta Freeroll (96452386), Table 8 – 50/100 – No Limit Hold’em – 17:45:53 ET – 2009/06/24
Seat 1: Triple3Perk (630), is sitting out
Seat 3: afanya (7,884)
Seat 4: sillyvallie (1,020), is sitting out
Seat 5: bigbiker2 (645), is sitting out
Seat 6: warlock9999 (5,715), is sitting out
Seat 7: 5hip it (3,876)
Seat 8: applejackking (7,490)
Seat 9: Fishes Chips (12,063)
applejackking posts the small blind of 50
Fishes Chips posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to applejackking [8s 8h]
Triple3Perk folds
afanya folds
sillyvallie folds
bigbiker2 folds
warlock9999 folds
5hip it folds
applejackking calls 50
Fishes Chips raises to 300
applejackking calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Ks Jc Th]
applejackking checks
Fishes Chips checks
*** TURN *** [Ks Jc Th] [8c]
applejackking checks
Fishes Chips bets 2,000
applejackking ????
5 Responses to “What’s his hand?”
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While as much background info on the villain’s previous betting habits would help, I think this is an easy fold. His over-bet of the pot would make one think either:
1) He knows it’s an over-bet with his Monster (AQ, KK, etc) and wants you to re-raise with something within a defined range he has for you (J10, QJ…).
2) AA. With this hand the 2k is obviously more of a GTFO bet, which he is making due to your double checking and wants to smush any pot-odds you may have gotten with the turn card. If you reraise all-in he can still get away with making that bet and not hurting his stack too much.
My call would to be to definitely fold unless based on previous betting patterns you can put him on AA or possibly QQ with greater than 80% certainty; in which case moving all-in would be the only other viable option.
It’s a $100 freeroll…why would you ever fold this? Shove turn all day long and live with the results.
With no metadata it is hard to accurately determine a specific hand. Was he tight? Range his raising hands and then polarize (if you can) based on the big overbet on turn and determine if your set has equity against the range.
why he bets 2000 onto 600 IDK, is he a monkey or a rock? Overbets are usually big hands…but you have a big hand now too. Without knowing anything and assuming $100 freerollers are generally donkeys I think its an auto-shove. You have draws against the straight and are only crushed by bigger sets and you dominate hands he might overbet with like AA AK KQ KJ.
Without image info you are basically asking for a guess so I guess AK.
raise or limp reraise preflop. 88 is v strong heads up and you devalue it by giving a free flop.
First of all, 88 is the kind of hand where it’s OK to try a steal with, or to try to flop a set, but you don’t want to get obsessed with it. With 75BB’s, you have more than enough to go deep in this tournament, so you want to get a lot of chips in with big hands, and otherwise try to keep pots smaller, no need to gamble yet. So I’d be raising pre flop, cbetting the flop, and letting go of the hand unless I have a set by then. I’d also fold pre flop to a reraise if I bet, but that might change if we had solid reads, or it was some other game where I thought he’d be restealing in this spot a lot.
A couple of things jump out at me in this hand. He’s actually made a fairly large mistake. By raising preflop, he’s telling us he either has a big hand, or he’s stealing. So we’d expect a steal to follow up with a bet on almost any flop. Like if he has 96s here he’s probably betting a KJTr when checked to. But he doesn’t. So he’s either slowplaying a monster, or pot controlling a decent hand like AJ/KQ that he doesn’t want to be check raised off. If he’d bet however, he could have had a draw, a bluff, a big hand, a medium hand and it’s really hard for us to tell. So I think by not betting, he really helps us understand his hand.
Turn is a bit awful. Quite a lot of those slowplaying hands still have our set crushed, so even though we saw a flop to flop a set, when we actually hit a set here, we are still only marginally happy. I can think of hands like AA/AK still thinking they had the goods here, but unfortunately AQ/KK/JJ/TT are more likely and a lot of people wouldn’t have been slowplaying AA/AK anyway, so it’s really almost certainly calling out a bigger hand than what you have. I would have bet the turn, as you can still get called by way worse than your set, but if he raised, I’d be folding. I would consider check calling the turn, but with his huge overbet, and the fact it’s very unlikely to be a bluff, I think I’d be folding, and waiting for a better spot. Yes it could be AA/AK, but it’s just as likely to be AQ/KK/JJ/TT, and you really don’t have to risk your whole stack to find out. As played, it’s a tight fold I think.
In this hand, I was moved to this table about 2 hands prior to this.
This was the result…
applejackking has 15 seconds left to act
applejackking has requested TIME
applejackking: wow
applejackking: aq or q9?
applejackking: show?
applejackking folds
Uncalled bet of 2,000 returned to Fishes Chips
Fishes Chips shows [9h Kh] a pair of Kings
Fishes Chips wins the pot (600)
Live and learn….
I’m glad I am the only one that said auto-jam haha!
telly: a $100 freeroller does not even know what pot controlling is…