Still on the grind. Still can’t catch up and run better than expected for any significant stretch. What’s the longest you’ve run significantly below EV? I know Leatherass has gone over 100K hands actually losing money so that’s def -EV for him. Luckily I’m still up over the last 70K hands. But I thought the graph would start to merge a little by now. Any of you guys have similarly long stetches like this? I’m not whining, it is what it is.
10 Responses to “Same old”
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I don’t think I can post a picture in comment, but I will tell you that in my last 45k hands, I’m over $1400 below All-In EV. Some of that is from $100NL and some from $50NL, so I would estimate it’s about 1800BB overall. Pretty awful.
Unrelated: Are you and Bret going to the Running Of The Bull in Dewey again this summer? Had a great time hanging out with you guys last year.
I have learned not to pay that much attention to that. But focusing on my game, The important thing is that both lines are going up. Ive been taught a coach at leggo that really understands stats, that you ai ev does not account for everything, such as a coolers. So it is quite possible that the difference you see is coolers.
That stat that matters is bb/100 every bb you can get up adds up very quickly.
“you cannot not control how you run but can control how you play”
hey eb, just started listening to your show and downloaded most of the podcast!!! great stuff!!!
I myself am trying to grind the NL Full Ring Tables! Been multitabling 12-20 50NL but recently had to drop to 25NL full ring b/c i started trying out the limit games and went on a big downswing thinking i could earn points and still be a winner multitabling limit……..maybe someday i’ll be a winner.
But keep up the awesome work and it looks like if looks like you are a winner at these stakes. How many tables do you play at a time?
I agree with tilted fisher. Don’t pay too much attention to all-in EV, it doesn’t tell the whole story.
yo EB! Your show is awesome, maybe someday I will be good enough to be on
Anyways, as a former stat major, I don’t think the all-in EV is really very useful at all. Especially if you are doing well at avoiding -EV situations…Look at it this way, if you take a bad beat, the statistical antithesis to that would be to lay a bat beat on someone else. If you are playing well, you will be avoiding those situations because to beat someone bad like that, you need -EV play.
Also, let’s say that you hit a small stretch of running way below EV, making a huge gap between your lines. So, in order to get the lines to merge again, you need to run ABOVE expectation just to get back to “normal”. Just because there is a gap does not mean that you are running below EV for the whole stretch!! As long as the gap remains the same size then you are running at expectation; you just got set back at the beginning.
I think it is a good sign that others are getting lucky on you more than you are getting lucky on them, because you do not want to get into situations where you need to get lucky to win a stack.
Let me know if you already have this perspective.
Graphs are boring. Post videos.
drew, you are correct that, since you are getting into more all-in situations as the favorite than as the underdog, it will take longer for your graph to converge back to 0 after a bad run. But nonetheless, as you approach infinity hands, it WILL converge back to zero. And not only because you’re putting a bad beat on someone: when you go all in with AA and get called by 99, you’re about an 80% favorite… when you win that hand, you’re running above EV, as your EV was 80% of the pot, and yet you won 100% of it. So you have the opportunity to “run good” in any all-in pot, favorite or underdog, so long as someone isn’t drawing dead.
Out of the 70,000+ hands, how many all in events have you had? Even if you go all in 1 out of every 100 hands (which might even be high), that’s only 700 all-in even shown on the graph. 700 might seem like a lot, but statistically its very possible that you’re not going to see an evening out until you start getting up to like 5,000+ all-in events, maybe even more. I think the graph is very normal because absent the big downswing up front and the one big uptick quickly followed by a big downtick around 55,000 hands, you’ve run almost exactly at EV. The good thing is that you’re getting all your $$$ in when the getting is good a lot of the time. Keep doing that and you’ll keep grinding away profits, just like you have been.
I’m not much of a flamer but…”As a former stat major”? Declaring an expert opinion? No offense but if we are going to toot our horn please be correct because when we are not on point we look…well you know how we look.
“Avoiding” -EV situations has nothing and I repeat nothing to do with expectation. -EV IS expectation. Avoiding -EV means you avoid losing money situations. You can’t spell -EV without EXPECTED. This is ABC stuff here. I am not a PT3 expert or anything but one’s ability has nothing to do with this graph. It is expectation. It DOES mean he was UL. Isn’t this known as the “luck” graph in the community?
Murph is on point. Mirrored graphs mean normal returns.
Great show listen every sunday night.. just saw the disrespect ivey has for a roll of 100 dollar bills..lmao.. eb i was like u only playing cash games not donkaments online for a long time..barely winning money in the long run.. i started picking out the 50-200 buyin guarenteed tourneys online a playing in them. it help me a lot focusing over a long period of time. and seemed to make up huge when i would cash in one adding to my 50nl game results..great show keep up the good work.. and congrats to u and ur wife on the new born man..