My alma mater lost to Middle Tennessee State for the 2nd year in a row. My Redskins squeaked over one of the worst teams in the NFL. And to top it off I couldn’t win a session this weekend despite playing tighter than a virgin on her wedding night.
In the last 3 days I enjoyed these standard beats. I flopped a set of queens and get it all in and guy hits his 2 outer on the turn. Some donk playing 54% of his hands in full ring has aces when I take a stand with QQ. I flop a set of 2’s and other guy flops set of 10’s. Another ass playing 56% of his hands calls my AK shove pre for 100 BBs with KQoff. Of course he flops KQQ. In a multiway pot I raise AA from the BB 22x and get 4 callers of course. Some donk flops two pair with 54. I raise KK under the gun and the small blind calls with 35 hearts and flops 353.
These are standard coolers/bad beats. They happen to everybody all the time. But I don’t know if I’ve ever taken so many in such a short period of time. Being down 9 buyins in 3 days isn’t catastrophic but when you play as carefully and deliberately as I do it’s really hard to swallow. Fuck.
10 Responses to “Awesome Weekend”
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Eb, check your medicorepoker email, i sent you something friday night…
Thanks for the email. But I have to tell you I’ve been playing super tight standard poker. I’m not doing anything fancy, just playing position and stealing just enough to keep em honest. It’s possible that it’s just a bad run but I’ve played 40k hands at NL100 and I’m down 10 buyins. How anybody beats full ring consistently at NL100 and above is beyond me.
I came across your site and dig what you are doing with the dang’s. And I am not exactly sure how long you have been playing but you must have figured out by now that variance is a m%&$*#(&$*#(&. Continue pounding donks and soon enough you will see a graph that looks exactly the opposite of this one.
EB:
When you talk football, you’ve been harping on the fact that you can’t reach any conclusions from an non-representational sample.
If you think 16 games isn’t a good enough sample to gauge the talent of a football team, you’ve gotta know that 7k NL hands is meaningless over the long haul.
Yes, being on the wrong end of the variance in the short term blows, but if you’re confident that you’re getting the money in the middle at the right time, that’s all you can do. Sh*# happens . . Bad Beats happen.
I’ll deny giving the advice later, but you should think like Hellmuth . . . if there wasn’t any luck involved, you’d win alot more (maybe not ‘all the time’ like Hellmuth thinks . . but more).
BTW . . . Lions are going to pwn the Pinkskins Sunday!! You should hear what they’re saying on Detroit sports radio!!
People have posted graphs of running bad for over 200k hands so it’s definitely possible that you’re getting more bad beats than others.
EB
Try not to go too ballistic tomorrow.
I can hear the Titanic music already.
I got a Lions hat with your name on it.
Be sure to factor in your rakeback when taking shots, I would imagine that you are alot closer to breaking even at 100nl then you realize. Therefore that much closer to beating the level. Second decreasing tables = higher winrate but lower hourly. I wouldn’t play more then four when starting at a new level as much as you hate it.
What is your email or contact info?
Hey man, hang in there… I had a couple of days like that where I lost 10-12 buyins from 2 outers, donks having hands that cooler me etc and within a week I built it back to where I was before.
EB,
Those beats are NOT standard. The RNG is fucked up at FT. I know you want to believe its random but its not. Phil Ivey would have lost if he played your cards and he would have probably played the same way. (except the AK pre flop shove) IMO the only way to make money on line is to multi table and not see the results until the session is over. It’s really not poker but its a way to make money long run due to the number of hands you are playing and the odds playing out long run. The problem with FT is the one table, two table etc. takes longer to get the odds to play out, odds wise. Is it “rigged”? Fuck if I know, but I will say this, I win regulary or break even or take a loss in a session live. Over the long run, I am a winning player at all the local games, including tourneys. Sure I take my beats but its not consistently hand after hand after hand like it is on FT. On line, welp I am just like you, I play really solid with lots of people sweating me and you know what? Thats right I lose session after session after session after session. One outers and turned sets are the norm on lin. That rarely happens to me live. Sure people hits sets and I will lose a good size pot when I flop two pair, however I can get those chips back during the session with good solid positional play. Now you can believe me or not, I can’t force you either way. On line if fucked up. I only play live and I’m fine with that. For the longest time I kept telling myself I can have similar results on line as I do live. I now only play live and I am happy about it.
PUMA